2024 Election Predictions And Betting Picks

It’s very rare to see an election cycle like this. This is the first time in US history where political betting markets are widely available to the public - and it shows. Betting neophytes are flooding the markets, providing tremendous profit opportunities to those who know how to read the data correctly.

When looking at the polls, the way to best interpret them is to look at each pollsters history of accuracy, then look at how each one’s polls are trending compared against their previous polls. Comparing pollsters against each other or averaging them all together is typically not going to get you the best information.

The pollsters I pay the most attention to are Atlas, Rasmussen, InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar, Emerson and Big Data Poll. These pollsters have a history of accuracy that is better than average, and I haven’t seen them intentionally tank polls to push a narrative.

The only poll aggregator I pay attention to is Real Clear Polling (RCP). Sites like FiveThirtyEight, 270ToWin, Silver Bulletin and others are outright garbage and should be ignored.

Gallup, Rasmussen and Atlas have all released national polling that indicates Trump is going to win the national popular vote by 2 to 3 points, which basically means this is gonna be a blowout election for Trump. Every major election indicator is pointing in Trump’s favor: early vote turnouts, economic conditions, voter sentiment, priorities and enthusiasm, all point to a massive Trump win. So when you see final polling flooding the news cycles all saying Trump is down these next few days, take comfort in knowing that it’s all a bunch of bullshit. Atlas and Rasmussen were some of the best pollsters of 2020, and Gallup has a long history of accurately calling the national electorate.

Based on the data I’ve analyzed along with information from people who are experts in the field of election prediction, Trump is going to win the following:

Trump Wins:

• All the swing states by 3 to 4 points. Those are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

• He will also win Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine.

• Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New Jersey are also on the table, but these are less likely. That said, I do believe he has a real shot at them, especially New Jersey.

• He will not lose any previous Republican states.

• Senate +54

• House win with good odds to take it by +16 (+230 seats)

• OH Senate race is a lock for Moreno, making it the best and safest bet.

• Lake will likely win her Senate seat in AZ, with her having huge betting returns.

• EC margin >65

• National popular vote by 2 to 3 points

• NC, AZ, GA, WI margins >4

Why Will Trump Win These States?

To start off with, let’s look at Pennsylvania, since this state is widely considered to be the decisive state in the election. If Trump wins PA, he’s likely to win the election. PA sits to the left of Georgia and North Carolina, meaning if he wins PA, he’s likely already won GA and NC. WI and MI have a long history of voting the same as PA, which is why they are often referred to as the Blue Wall. These three states almost always vote together, no matter what each state’s individual polling may indicate. Trump won them in 2016 and lost them in 2020. If PA goes to Trump, so will MI and WI. They all have similar demographics and the reasons I outline below for PA going to Trump apply to MI and WI as well.

In 2020, the Democrats flooded PA with millions of mail-in ballots, and built up a million vote “firewall” of early votes before election day even happened. That firewall is now down to under 400k votes this time around. Trump lost PA by 81k votes out of 6.8 million votes cast in 2020. The loss of this firewall alone is enough to give Trump a massive victory, but that’s not the only thing Trump has going for him.

This election cycle, pollsters in PA continuously find the economy is ranked first in voter priorities, followed by border security - issues which heavily favor Trump. This is true at a national level as well. Trump is also winning the non-college and working class vote by a large margin. Along with that, Trump has a remarkable ability to pull in low propensity voters (people who vote infrequently, if at all). These voters are discounted by most polling firms, and they often don’t bother to respond to pollsters in the first place. These low propensity voters are making up a sizable share of Republican early votes, meaning Republicans will still have a large turnout on election day, while Democrats are cannibalizing more of their election day votes through early voting.

Independent voters in PA say they are worse off than they were four years ago and disapprove of Biden’s job performance. Some pollsters have the independent vote split in PA, and some have Trump winning independents by over 10 points, but nationally, independents are going for Trump by 5-10 points across the board, so it’s likely that’s the case in PA as well.

In 2016, Trump massively over preformed his polling averages. In fact, the only pollster in 2016 to correctly call a Trump +1 win was Trafalgar. Trump over-preformed his RCP polling average by nearly 3 points. In 2020… well, we all know what happened in 2020:

The fact that this election cycle is much more like 2016, and that Trump is up in the RCP polling average in PA, as well as all the good pollsters having him at +1 to +2, says he’s on track to win PA by 3 to 4 points, which is in-line with what we would expect from a national R+3 electorate.

Trump will win PA, barring some insane levels of shenanigans. Speaking of shenanigans, here’s another reason to have some confidence in the PA election. Gov. Shapiro wants to President. It would be much easier for him to run against the next Republican than it would be for him to run against an incumbent Kamala. And she prevented him from being in a primary against her. He doesn’t particularly want her to win. Governors have a huge say in how vigorously election laws are enforced. The fact we are seeing people getting caught in PA for shenanigans is a good sign he’s going to try and keep this one fairly clean.

As for NH, in 2016 Trump lost to Hillary by less than a point. In ME, he lost to Hillary by 3 points, but Gary Johnson was on the ticket and he took 5% of the vote, a large portion of which likely would have gone to Trump had he not been on the ticket. Do you think a phony carpet bagger from California who can’t put a sentence together, and is part of a failed administration, is a stronger candidate than Hillary? Not a chance. The early vote and voter enthusiasm in NH and ME point to a Trump win. Both these states have large white working class populations. Polling in NH and ME is total garbage, it can be ignored completely. National polling data has NH and ME’s demographics going red this time.

The Sun Belt is solid red. Republicans are actually leading in the NV early vote for the first time in recent history. NV is a lock for Trump, same with AZ.

Virginia is the most interesting of the bunch, and one not on the national radar. Take a look at what Salem, VA looked like the other day at this Trump rally. It looks like 1969 Woodstock:

In 2016, Trump lost to Hillary by 5 points. In 2020, Biden won with some questionable irregularities, such as not winning Westmoreland, Caroline, Nelson or Covington, yet still winning the state with record levels of votes. The 2020 VA election was rigged to high heaven, but this time there is a Republican governor running the show, so those kinds of shenanigans are less likely.

The Democrats only have a 250k early vote advantage going into election day. In 2021, Republican governor Glenn Youngkin won VA by 64K votes with a 212K Dem early vote advantage. So that alone tells you Trump is within striking distance. Trump is also winning the low propensity vote in VA, so he will have more gas left in the tank when it comes to election day.

Several good polls currently have Trump within the margin of error, down by a few points or tied. The gossip on X is that Republican internal polling has Trump ahead. Trump himself has made statements on the campaign trail intimating as much. In 2020, Trump over-preformed his polling by 2 points. Further, National polling has VA’s demographics going red.

VA has a significant black population, which national surveys indicate Trump has made significant gains with. Some pollsters have Trump winning 30% of the black male vote while taking half that of the female vote. If Trump takes 23% of the black vote in VA, either by them staying home or voting for Trump directly, he’s going to win. Black men in particular do not like Kamala.

Kamala just pulled all of her campaign funding out of NC and dumped it into VA. You don’t do that if you think you have it in the bag. Do you think Kamala is going to preform at the same level as Hillary when she’s a much weaker candidate and there is a Republican governor there to make sure there’s no shenanigans? I don’t think so. VA has similar demographic trends to NH and ME, and for the same reasons, I predict VA is going to go red this time around.